Publication

This commentary discusses the power of different IR theories to predict developments in Sino-Japanese relations. The author explains that as observers struggle to predict the future of East Asia, they face a familiar choice among three schools of thought: realist, liberal, and constructivist. He argues that liberal assumptions about the goodwill generated by economic integration have lost credibility. Yet, relying on realist assumptions may lead to erroneous predictions without considering a recent surge in the intensity of national identities, which may support constructivist views.