Publication

This policy brief examines John F Kennedy's 'black swan logic' approach to conflict, which emphasized the possibility of extreme consequences to improbable events. The authors argue that JFK's decision-making process was heavily based on his inclination towards skepticism and this led to his wise non-action against Soviet aggression that would have caused severe retaliation. They conclude that, considering the dangers of conflicts of recent times, a 'black swan' detection mechanism may be of great benefit to avoid unnecessary escalations.