Publication

This brief discusses a number of scenarios which examine the factors that could influence national election results in South Africa up to the year 2030. The author argues that the role and leadership of the African National Congress is central in all the scenarios, but that other decisive factors include developments within the Congress of South African Trade Unions; rising voter apathy and the lack of political accountability in the country; and the ability of opposition parties to mobilize the young black vote in their favor. The paper also includes a number of recommendations on how South Africa can tackle the problems of voter apathy and its lack of political accountability.