Publication

This brief argues that the number of intrastate armed conflicts will continue to decline in the future. The reasons for this trend, by the way, are ones an 18th century Enlightenment thinker would recognize instantly -- i.e., improved education, economic diversification, and demographic shifts. This greater peacefulness, however, will not be spread out evenly. Because Africa and South Asia will remain mired in the 'conflict trap', we should expect the majority of of internal conflicts to occur in these regions.