Publication

What type of popular uprising is more likely to succeed -- a violent or nonviolent one? Also, do the follow-on actions of state security forces determine the success of this type of uprising, as is commonly assumed? After exploring these questions in detail, this brief concludes that 1) nonviolent revolts are much more likely to succeed than violent ones; 2) in most cases, the follow-on actions of security forces do indeed determine the success of any popular revolt; and 3) successful uprisings do not necessarily lead to major liberal democratic reforms. (Note: While developing these conclusions, the brief pays particular attention to Ukraine's popular revolts in 2004-2005 and 2013-2014.)