Publication

Following the declaration of a caliphate in the territories held by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in Iraq in June 2014, this paper assesses whether the jihadist group will focus its attention on Baghdad or consolidate its positions in other parts of Iraq. To help answer this question the author notes, among other things, that 1) ISIL has paraded large quantities of US-made arms in Mosul and elsewhere, showing it has acquired substantial material; 2) ISIL has demonstrated a significant conventional warfare capability; and 3) if ISIL continues to hold Tikrit, it will gain further support from anti-government groups across Sunni districts of Iraq.