Publication

Following the capture of Mosul and the declaration of an Islamic Caliphate by the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), this brief assesses the group’s continued impact and aspirations. It notes among other things that 1) it will be difficult for ISIL to make further significant territorial gains; 2) external forces (Iran and US) will not allow Baghdad to fall to ISIL; 3) in the long-term, ISIL may seek to develop a powerbase in Jordan; and 4) significant numbers from other rebel groups in Syria are now joining ISIL.