Publication

This paper examines the potential implications for regional and international security of an Iranian acquisition of a nuclear weapon as well as the probability of the country's use of such a weapon. The author claims that if nuclear weapons were to be used in the Middle East following their proliferation in the region, this would most likely result from a miscalculation, accidental use of a nuclear device, or an act of desperation in a crisis. He also suggests that although Iran's acquisition of a nuclear capability would not substantially increase the probability of nuclear use in the region.