Publication

This monograph looks at Thucydides' classic text, the "History of the Peloponnesian War," in order to clarify the problems associated with defining future threats. In doing so, it 1) recommends prudence when performing any type of 'futurology'; 2) reminds us that there is very real political and cultural discretion in identifying and defining threats; 3) stresses the idea of historical parallels (rather than analogies) as a source of 'evidence' about future perils; and 4) emphasizes that all states, even great powers, are obliged to behave according to the same rule book, and plan with a familiar playbook, as other ones.