Publication

This paper argues that there has been a "nearly proper" ceasefire in the Donbass region of Ukraine since September 2015. The reasons for it include the political-military balance on the ground, the current sanctions against Russia, and Moscow's diverted interest in the Syrian Civil War. But what about Russia's future military options in Donbass? The paper's author contends that Moscow may 1) use force to repel a Ukrainian attempt to retake part of the area; 2) obstruct the Minsk process if it's disadvantageous to Russia; or 3) seize more territory if there is further political and social turmoil in Ukraine. To minimize any of these risks, the author concludes that the EU and US should prolong the existing sanctions against Moscow, fine-tune the diplomatic pressure to implement and uphold the Minsk Protocols, and pay more attention to the political and economic transformations going on in the rest of Ukraine.