Publication

This commentary looks at 1) the drop in Belarus' GDP in 2015, which was the first such decline in almost 20 years, and 2) how the government is responding to the country's economic distress. In the latter case, President Lukashenko, who privileges his authoritarian rule above all else, has categorically rejected proposals for even partial reforms to resolve the crisis. Instead, he's opted to try and obtain large, low-interest stabilization loans, principally, from the IMF and the Russian-controlled Eurasian Stabilisation and Development Fund. In truth, the loans will only postpone the inevitable need for reforms while also increasing their cost.