Publication

This paper develops a methodology for estimating the performance of international regulatory regimes, building on work by Underdal, Sprinz, Helm and Hovi. The performance metric presented by the authors relies on assessments, over time, of actual, counterfactual and optimal performance. To demonstrate the empirical relevance of such a methodology the authors examine international water management in the Naryn/Syr Darya basin, a major international river system in Central Asia. Emphasis is on the Toktogul reservoir, the main reservoir in the Naryn/Syr Darya basin and its downstream effects. The biggest policy challenge is to design and implement international trade-offs among water releases for upstream hydropower-production in winter and water releases for downstream irrigation in summer. The paper finds that the international regime that has been in place since 1998 is characterized by low to average performance and high variability. The authors compare such results with results from a compliance oriented assessment approach to highlight the analytical problems inherent in the latter.