Publication

By examining a sample of 14 incidents of power shifts among great powers, this paper analyzes the political and military ramifications of power shifts that are an important cause of war. The author suggests that the US will likely adopt an aggressive posture in anticipation of its decline, while China will attempt to avoid confrontation by pursuing a cautious policy. The paper includes a comparative historical analysis on two crucial cases: Thucydides and the Russo-German rapprochement during the Bismarckian era.