Publication

This testimony to the US House of Representatives analyzes common patterns of how civil wars evolve and how they end, assessing where Iraq fits into the general pattern. The author stresses that "staying the course" in Iraq may put off political disintegration and major escalation violence, but is unlikely to produce a democratic government. The author draws his evidence from the experience of other civil wars and notes that the most likely scenario following reduction of US troop presence is the escalation of a Lebanon-like civil war.