Publication

In July 2006 North Korea test fired seven ballistic missiles. This led to the imposition of targeted UN sanctions. Then, on 9 October 2006, North Korea conducted its first ever nuclear weapons test, provoking virtually unanimous international condemnation and the imposition of additional UN sanctions. The scene seemed set for escalating confrontation. However, in December 2006 North Korea returned to the Six-Party Talks, which had been stalled for over a year. This research paper surveys the checkered course over the past 15 years of negotiations designed to end North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, including the Six-Party Talks. Looking to the longer-term, the paper also briefly assesses the likelihood of three different scenarios for change in North Korea: sustained reform; "stop-start" reform; and regime collapse.