Publication

This paper discusses whether terrorists could and would build a nuclear device. One way to answer the question, according to the author, is to determine how costly building a nuclear device would be, particularly in comparison to other methods for inflicting large numbers of casualties. He argues that a simple model begins with the assumption that terrorist organizations interested in inflicting large numbers of casualties, such as al-Qaida or Aum Shinrikyo, want to maximize casualties and minimize costs. The paper seeks to inquire whether a nuclear weapons attack would be cost effective at the margin for an organization like al-Qaida.