Publication

This paper provides an analytical framework for assessing the threats posed by armed groups. First, it outlines the post-Cold War security context in which armed groups thrive. Second, the paper highlights the direct and indirect threats posed by armed groups and their strategic impact on the US. The authors then propose an analytic framework for constructing an operational profile of an armed group. They finally identify trends that demonstrate that armed groups will continue to pose direct and indirect security challenges to the US for decades.