Publication
Jan 2008
This paper analyzes the power of various indicators to predict growth rates of aggregate production using real-time data. In addition, the authors assess their ability to predict turning points of the economy. They consider four groups of indicators: survey data, composite indicators, real economic indicators and financial data. The research confirms that an indicator suited to improve growth forecasts does not necessarily help to produce more accurate recession forecasts and that only composite leading indicators perform generally well in both forecasting exercises.
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English (PDF, 27 pages, 587 KB) |
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Author | Jonas Dovern, Christina Ziegler |
Series | Kiel Institute Working Papers |
Issue | 1397 |
Publisher | Kiel Institute for the World Economy |
Copyright | © 2008 Kiel Institute for the World Economy |