Publication

This paper assesses security trends in global terrorism, local conflicts in Africa and developments in armed conflict and coups. It challenges the expert consensus that the threat of terrorism, especially Islamist terrorism, is increasing, analyzes the marked decline in the number of armed conflicts in sub-Saharan Africa and updates the global trend data on armed conflicts, battle-deaths, coups and human rights abuses. The paper finds evidence indicating that efforts to stop violent conflicts and prevent them from starting again can be remarkably effective.