Publication

This paper explores the historical experience of a range of variables related to climate change projections with the goal of examining if there is any evidence historically of convergence. The focus of the paper is on per capita carbon emissions from fossil fuel use as this is the basis of many projections as well as a variety of policy proposals. The authors also present evidence on GDP per capita, energy intensity of output and the emissions intensity of energy supply. The paper finds strong evidence that the wide variety of assumptions about "convergence" commonly used in emissions projections are not based on empirically observed phenomena.