Publication

This briefing paper, written before the 2003 US invasion of Iraq, outlines some of the potential consequences of invading Iraq. The author’s chief predictions are that hostilities will result in thousands of Iraqi civilian deaths; regional instability will increase, favoring al-Qaida’s proliferation; and that the US will be drawn into protracted urban warfare in Baghdad. The author furthermore predicts that US forces will easily overcome Iraqi elements, however, some of the elite Republican Guard forces may resist. In closing, the author urgently suggests finding nonmilitary alternatives.