Publication

Apr 2019

This publication contends that the US is on a risky path with its anti-China policy. The text’s author analyzes US-China relations with Dale Copeland’s “trade expectations theory”, which captures this risk, and introduces the expectations of future trade as a causal variable for the likelihood of war. According to this theory, the optimistic expectations of China’s leaders hinge on their confidence that oil and trade flows will remain open and stable – a mindset that might change if the US moves toward a policy of containment and economic coercion. With negative expectations of future trade relations, the likelihood of conflict will increase.

Download English (PDF, 4 pages, 100 KB)
Author Christina Lin
Series ISPSW Publications
Issue 613
Publisher Institut für Strategie- Politik- Sicherheits- und Wirtschaftsberatung (ISPSW)
Copyright © 2019 Institut für Strategie- Politik- Sicherheits- und Wirtschaftsberatung (ISPSW)
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