Publication

Europe has managed to remain united against Russia since the latter invaded Ukraine in 2014. However, the authors of this text worry that this resolve could unravel if 1) the EU decides to enforce the Russian interpretation of the Minsk agreements on Ukraine; 2) Brussels succumbs to ‘Ukraine fatigue’ and accepts the status quo; 3) the US disengages from Ukraiine and ends its sanctions on Russia; and 4) a Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin reach a “grand bargain” that shatters EU unity and allows Russia to bring Ukraine back into its sphere of influence.