Publication

This publication reflects on the situation in the Middle East following the death in January 2020 of Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s Qods Force, and Sultan of Oman Qaboos bin Said al Said. Key insights include 1) these deaths push the Middle East towards further instability, increasing the risk that an action – by design or accident – could spark a major regional conflict; 2) Iran, Turkey and Qatar have embarked on a joint effort to exploit the current situation to become the region’s dominant power; 3) the presence of external great powers is evolving, with the US leaving grudgingly and China and Russia increasing their influence, and more.