Publication

This paper speculates on the future foreign relations between Russia and six of its neighbors. More specifically, the text's authors look at five trends that might shape or even upend these relations up through 2030. The forces behind the trends include 1) Russia’s economic problems and the temptations they raise for diversionary wars; 2) Moscow’s rekindled inclination to use military force; 3) its long-standing hegemonic attitudes towards its near-abroad; 4) the domestic trajectories of Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova; and 5) internal developments in Belarus, Azerbaijan and Armenia. While exploring these factors, the text’s authors also set out broad principles that Europe might follow in order to manage the risks that lie ahead.