Publication

This paper speculates on how long the Putin regime will remain in power, the exit strategies it might eventually adopt, and the type of regime that could follow in its wake. As the text’s author sees it, the Putin machine currently suffers from 1) an over-concentration of power; 2) an increasingly reactive and short-term approach to decision making; 3) a serious overreliance on military power as a tool of legitimacy; 4) weak Russian institutions; and 5) intra-elite conflicts over a diminishing number of economic spoils. Given these problems, the ruling oligarchy might pursue one of three options in the future – outright regime change, some type of reconciliation with the West, or the targeted removal of Putin, which could then result in the reestablishing of electoral legitimacy.