Ceasefire Project

Project Teams:

• Center for Security Studies (CSS) at ETH Zürich: Govinda Clayton, Simon Mason, Valerie Sticher, Claudia Wiehler
• Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO): external pageHåvard Mokleiv Nygårdcall_made, external pageSiri Aas Rustadcall_made, external pageHåvard Strandcall_made
• Uppsala University: external pageCorinne Baracall_made
  

Social Media: external page#ceasefireprojectcall_made, external page#ceasefiredatasetcall_made

2017 - ongoing

The Ceasefire Project seeks to develop a stronger understanding of the role that ceasefires play in the transition from war to peace. Ceasefires are a regular occurrence in armed conflict, yet we know surprisingly little about why or when they occur, or how they affect the course of war or likelihood of peace. This is particularly true for civil conflict, and conflict between non-state actors, that have been largely overlooked in most existing research.

We focus in particular on the following questions:

1. Why, when, and under what conditions are ceasefires enacted?
2. What are the consequences of ceasefires for conflict dynamics, and
3. How do ceasefires affect peace processes (and vice versa)?

The project builds on an ongoing collaboration between researchers from the Center for Security Studies (CSS) at ETH Zurich, the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), and Uppsala University. It benefits from generous funding from the Folke Bernadotte Academy (FBA), Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the Swedish Research Council. 

A key contribution of the project has been the creation of the ETH/PRIO Civil Conflict CeaseFire (CF) dataset. This includes information on all ceasefires during civil conflict between 1989 and 2021. This is the first globally comparative database of civil-war ceasefires which includes information on the full family of ceasefires, including unilateral, verbal, written and non-implemented ceasefires. It also includes information on the purpose, timing and type of ceasefire. The dataset is compatible with other conflict datasets, in particular the UCDP conflict database. The data has been introduced external pageherecall_made.

As part of the Ceasefire Project, PRIO and the CSS will publish a range of short reports outlining the role that ceasefires have played in different countries (see the reports below). Beyond the collection of quantitative data, the Ceasefire Project is also undertaking in depth case analysis of the role played by ceasefires in a number of peace processes, based on interviews and field research.

Ultimately, the project aims to generate research helping mediators, policymakers and conflict parties make informed choices that increase the chances for lasting peace. As such, the projects finding will be communicate via a range of different mediums, ranging from academic outputs, to policy briefs, training material and open access data.

For any queries relating to the ceasefire project, or if you would like a briefing based on the project to date, please contact Dr Govinda Clayton – 

Publications

• external pageClayton, Govinda; Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; Strand, Håvard; Rustad, Siri Aas; Wiehler, Claudia; Sagård, Tora; Landsverk, Peder; Ryland, Reidun; Sticher, Valerie; Wink, Emma; Bara, Corinne (2022) 'Introducing the ETH/PRIO Civil Conflict Ceasefire Dataset', Journal of Conflict Resolutioncall_made
  
• external pageClayton, Govinda; Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; Rustad, Siri Aas; Strand, Håvard (2022) 'Ceasefires in Civil Conflict: A Research Agenda', Journal of Conflict Resolutioncall_made
  
• external pageClayton, Govinda; Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; Rustad, Siri Aas; Strand, Håvard (2022) 'Costs and Cover: Explaining the Onset of Ceasefires in Civil Conflict', Journal of Conflict Resolutioncall_made
  
• external pageBara, Corinne; Clayton, Govinda (2022) 'Your Reputation Precedes You: Ceasefires and Cooperative Credibility During Civil Conflict', Journal of Conflict Resolutioncall_made
  
• external pageClayton, Govinda; Buchanan, Cate; Ramsbotham, Alexander (2021) 'Ceasefire Monitoring: Developments and Complexities', Accord Spotlightcall_made
  
• Clayton, Govinda; Kane, Sean (2021) 'Cyber Ceasefires: Incorporating Restraints on Offensive Cyber Operations in Agreements to Stop Armed Conflict', CSS Mediation Resources, Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zürich
• external pageSticher, Valerie; Vuković, Siniša (2021) 'Bargaining in Intrastate Conflicts: The Shifting Role of Ceasefires', Journal of Peace Researchcall_made
  
• external pageClayton, Govinda; Bara, Corinne; Rustad, Siri Aas (2021) 'Understanding Ceasefires', International Peacekeepingcall_made
• external pageClayton, Govinda; Sticher, Valerie (2021) 'The Logic of Ceasefires in Civil War', International Studies Quarterlycall_made
• external pageClayton, Govinda; Nathan, Laurie; Wiehler, Claudia (2021) 'Ceasefire Success: A Conceptual Framework', International Peacekeepingcall_made
• Wiehler, Claudia (2020) 'Mediation Perspectives: Why COVID-19 Ceasefires Remain an Exception', CSS Blog, Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zürich
• Clayton, Govinda (2020) 'The UN Has Appealed for a Global Coronavirus Ceasefire: But Is It Possible to Quarantine Conflict?', CSS Blog, Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zürich
• external pageDuursma, Allard (2020) 'African Solutions to African Challenges', International Organizationcall_made
  
• Catena, Rafaela (2020) 'Somalia', Ceasefire Project Country Reports, Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zürich
• Lieberherr, Boas (2020) 'Liberia', Ceasefire Project Country Reports, Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zürich
  
• Clayton, Govinda; Mason, Simon J. A. Mason; Sticher, Valerie; Wieler, Claudia (2019) 'No. 252: Ceasefires in Intra-state Peace Processes', CSS Analyses in Security Policy, Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zürich
  
• Clayton, Govinda; Wieler, Claudia (2019) 'Waffenstillstände in Bürgerkriegen: ein globaler Datensatz', Bulletin 2019 on Swiss Security Policy, Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zürich
  
• Wiehler, Claudia (2019) 'Burundi', Ceasefire Project Country Reports, September 2019
• Palik, Júlia (2019) 'Yemen', Ceasefire Project Country Reports,Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zürich