Publication

Much analysis of trends in democratization gives a rather pessimistic message, with such sweeping notions as the end of the third wave of democratization or the democratic transition paradigm. A closer look at what has been happening in Europe, however, suggests that such analyses have often overlooked an important explanatory variable, captured in what we may call a "gravity model". The gravity model of democratization joins up with the mechanisms of Europeanization, with democratization progressing fast and deeply in 20 European states that were recently non-democratic, and which have various integrative relationships with the EU. This paper takes a close look at the "gravity model" and examines the democratization processes in the countries of the former Ottoman Empire and the former Soviet Union.