Publication

Two emerging tracks of trade agreement in the Asia-Pacific could consolidate the "noodle bowl" of current smaller agreements and provide pathways to a Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP). The authors examine the benefits and strategic incentives generated by these tracks over 2010-2025. The effects on the world economy would be small initially but by 2025 the annual welfare gains would rise to $104 billion on the TPP track, $303 billion on both tracks, and $862 billion with an FTAAP. The tracks will be competitive but their strategic implications are constructive: each would generate incentives for enlargement.