Publication

This brief challenges the reasoning that environmental scarcity is always a trigger of political violence, and that Africa is likely to become ground zero for future climate-related violence. It indicates that political violence is, in fact, more prevalent in times of environmental abundance than in times of scarcity, and that while the link between environmental shocks and conflict is strongest in less developed and more agriculturally dependent societies, these features are not unique to Africa. The study's results provide support for what the authors call the mobilization model of environmental conflict, which seeks to explain how fluctuations in environmental factors and political violence may be related.