Publication

The chances of a negotiated solution for the civil war in Syria are smaller than ever. A further escalation of violence is to be expected, though not all scenarios suggest an extended war of attrition. For the time being, no Western military intervention is in the offing, due to the divisions in the UN and the high risks of such a mission. However, the Syrian conflict is increasingly developing into a regional proxy war, the outcome of which will have far-reaching consequences for the balance of power in the Middle East.