Publication

This paper examines why national budgets in low-income countries are poor estimates of future government revenue and expenditure. The author develops a framework for explaining such 'budget-non-credibility' using rational choice theory and identifies the elements that drive it. These include 1) the lack of knowledge the government has about the future; 2) the inability of the head of the executive to fully control his subordinates; and 3) the desire for the head of the executive to gain the support of external stakeholders by publishing budgets he does not intend to undertake. He then applies this model to the budgets of Uganda, Tanzania and Liberia.