Publication

This paper discusses the factors that affect the resilience of emerging market economies to difficult external economic conditions, especially if such conditions are prolonged. In general, the author argues that the initial economic conditions in a country prior to the eruption of adverse external shocks are very significant, particularly in terms of policy decisions taken in the pre-crisis period. The author also identifies which variables can be used to assess macroeconomic resilience and uses them to assess the relative macroeconomic resilience of 21 emerging countries just prior to the 2008 global economic crisis and in 2014.