Publication

This paper discusses the proposed targets for under-five mortality rates in the post-2015 global development agenda and how they could be inappropriate for sub-Saharan Africa and other regions if they are made to reflect recent accelerations in reductions in these rates. In particular, the authors argue that a key fact about relative changes in mortality rates is their lack of consistency, meaning forecasts based on recent reductions could lead to overly optimistic expectations. They then contend that the existing Millennium Development Goal for reductions is more appropriate than the one proposed for the post-2015 agenda and look at the likely drivers of future child death rate reductions.