Publication

This brief reviews the findings of CGD’s Global Health Forecasting Working Group, which studies the challenges surrounding demand forecasting for health products. The group concludes that better forecasting requires wider sharing of the risk involved in producing drugs and aligning incentives among those who influence market dynamics. The group offers three key recommendations: improve the capacity to develop credible forecasts, mobilize and share information about product demand in a coordinated way through the establishment of an infomediary, share risks and align incentives through a broad range of contractual arrangements.