Weapons of the Weak: Technological Change, Guerrilla Firepower, and Counterinsurgency Outcomes

Weapons of the Weak: Technological Change, Guerrilla Firepower, and Counterinsurgency Outcomes

Author(s): Costantino Pischedda, Mauro Gilli, Andrea Gilli
Journal Title: Journal of Conflict Resolution
Publisher(s): Sage Journals
Publication Year: 2025

Costantino Pischedda, CSS Senior Researcher Mauro Gilli, and Andrea Gilli argue that the role of insurgents’ weapons in counterinsurgency outcomes has been overlooked. Unlike studies focusing on relative firepower, they emphasize insurgents’ absolute firepower—specifically, the lethality of small arms in hit-and-run attacks. They argue that technological advances in small arms since the mid-19th century have enhanced guerrilla tactics and improved insurgents’ strategic success. This claim is supported by a statistical analysis of guerrilla firepower in counterinsurgency campaigns from 1800 to 2005.