Can Terrorism Abroad Influence Migration Attitudes at Home?
Does a terrorist attack in Paris or London influence public opinion on migration in Berlin or Vienna? A recent study by Tobias Böhmelt, Vincenzo Bove and CSS researcher Enzo Nussio published in the American Journal of Political Science demonstrates that public opinion on migration “at home” is indeed systematically driven by terrorism in other countries.
A main issue in public debate on immigration revolves around the possible security implications of such population inflows. The authors of this new study point out that “public sentiment toward immigration can influence which parties assume power, shape states’ legislative outputs, and affect the way immigrants are integrated into receiving communities… As such, a comprehensive understanding of how and by which factors public opinion on immigration is formed is crucial for the effective design of immigration and integration policies.”
While there is no empirical evidence that more immigration leads to more terrorist attacks, political discussions and media coverage repeatedly make a connection between the two phenomena. Over the last few years, the increasing frequency of terrorist violence meant that the question of how to most effectively respond to terrorism has returned as a central concern for policy makers. Public opinion is an important measure of success and influence for terrorist organizations. Thus, understanding how public attitudes are formed is fundamental for counterterrorism policies.
The Impact of Terrorism on Migration Attitudes
This article demonstrates that public opinion on migration “at home” is systematically driven by terrorism in neighboring countries. News about terrorist attacks can trigger more negative views of immigrants. The researchers argue that feelings of imminent danger and a more salient perception of threats posed by migration do not stop at national borders. The empirical results, based on spatial econometrics and data on all terrorist attacks in Europe during the post‐9/11 period, support these claims. The effect of terrorism on concerns about migration is strongly present within a country but also diffuses across states in Europe. "The closer a country is to the attacked state," CSS’ Enzo Nussio, co-author of the article, emphasizes, "the more intensive the reporting on an assault is and the greater the effect on public opinion. In our paper, for example, we show that an attack in France has a greater impact on migration attitudes in Germany than in Greece, Bulgaria or Cyprus. Proximity to the affected country is crucial. "
In sum, the results of the study suggest that the connection between concerns over terrorism and migration flows made in the public's mind extends beyond national boundaries. This can have a direct impact on political attitudes as public opinion shapes policy. This is important as policymakers make decisions in the wake of attacks in line with public opinion. Finally, a better understanding of what shapes perceptions of immigrants will help us define better integration policies.
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