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Strategic Trends 2020 offers a concise analysis of major developments in world affairs, with a primary focus on international security. The four topics covered this year include the domestic determinants of the US-China rivalry and their implications at the international level, the specter of great power war between China and the US, China as a stress test for Europe’s coherence and China’s pivot to Eurasia through the Belt and Road Initiative.

The corona crisis is a double-edged sword for the Algerian regime, as CSS researcher Lisa Watnanbe points out in this contribution for the CSS Corona Blog. The lockdown and curfew are playing in the regime’s favor by bringing temporary relief from protests. Yet, the long-term consequences of the crisis will test the regime’s ability to manage economic recovery and popular dissent.

The corona crisis underscores the importance of science-based policy advice. In this CSS Policy Perspective, Oliver Thränert argues that it is necessary to further improve the cooperation between politics and think tanks in Europe.

The criticality of medical goods and volatility of European economies resulting from the corona crisis increase the risk of opportunistic acquisitions of strategic assets and technology via foreign direct investments (FDI). According to CSS'  Sophie-Charlotte Fischer, the EU Commission and Member States are stepping up the protection of European economies to contain the fallout of the crisis.

Over the next two years, the CSS will study the medium- and long-term consequences of the coronavirus pandemic in the framework of two research projects. The emphasis will be on crisis management at the national and international levels as well as the implications of the crisis for international relations and for national and international security policy.

The abolition of nuclear weapons is unlikely in the near future. The number of nuclear powers must be kept as low as possible in order to prevent nuclear wars. A diverse range of ongoing diplomatic initia­tives, including some with Swiss participation, serve this purpose. At the core of these efforts is the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). March 2020 marked the 50th anniversary of its entry into force.

Whether by predicting the global spread of the novel coronavirus originating from China or detecting wildfires in California, the use of artificial intelligence in civil protection promises to improve the prevention of, response to, and recovery from disasters. However, getting there requires rethinking data silos and assessing high-risk applications.

Research shows that close social ties, personal networks and helping each other are crucial in dealing with severe crises. This includes the current corona crisis. Thus, fighting the virus is about physical and not “social distancing”, argues CSS’ Benjamin Scharte in his contribution for the CSS Blog.