Trend Analysis Civil Protection 2030
Artificial Intelligence, Digitalization, Climate Change – many overarching trends and developments have the potential to alter the lives of billions of people in the coming years. This CSS report aims to provide a systematic analysis of twelve technological, societal and environmental trends for the next ten years, and makes recommendations on how the civil protection system in Switzerland could be optimized in view of their impact.
The nature and impacts of emergencies and disasters vary over time, depending on changes in social, technological and environmental conditions, and the availability of prevention and coping measures. Civil protection is therefore a continuous and dynamic process that requires constant adjustments to ensure responsible authorities are adequately equipped and prepared to mitigate risks and manage potential and actual threats.
In addition to ongoing risk analyses, an important measure for adapting civil protection systems to dynamic societal needs, is periodic analysis of current trends and their likely future impact. The objective of this report is twofold. It aims to provide a systematic analysis of relevant trends for the next five to ten years and to recommend adaptation measures that will optimize the Swiss civil protection system in years to come. The analysis deliberately refrains from ranking the importance of individual trends in order not to anticipate possible strategic decisions. Rather, the analysis is intended to serve as a supportive foundation on which to develop the civil protection system via targeted, coordinated and comprehensible strategic decisionmaking. It provides a continuation of the first Risk and Resilience Report on trends in civil protection, which was published in 2014, extending the time horizon from 2025 to 2030.