Geostrategic Storm in the Indian Ocean
China, the US, and India are competing for political, economic, and military influence in the Indian Ocean. In the future, the strategic order in this institutionally underdeveloped region will become more multipolar and unstable, argues Boas Lieberherr in this CSS Analysis. Maritime security is at risk, with possible repercussions for security of supply in Europe.
A storm seems to be brewing in the Indian Ocean. This maritime space, which stretches from the east coast of Africa to the west coast of Australia, is at the center of strategic rivalry between China, the US, and India. This is becoming apparent in many ways – the competition for infrastructure projects, the stronger interference in national affairs of the littoral countries, and the increasing militarization of the region. The economic and technology sector is likely to take center stage in this strategic rivalry. While China is increasing its influence in this area, the foreign policies of India and the US are more focused on security. No tectonic shifts are predicted for the foreseeable future in the military sphere. India’s stance is likely to play a decisive role in the future balance of power in the region.