Strategic Foresight. Knowledge, Tools, and Methods for the Future
This CSS Risk and Resilience Report by Kevin Kohler reviews methods in strategic foresight that can help organizations to deal with and reduce uncertainty. The report uses examples from the Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN) domains and discusses some caveats, such as information hazards that are particularly relevant to this context. The overview it provides can be useful across a wide range of strategic decision-making processes.
The COVID-19 pandemic abruptly changed the lives of almost everyone on the planet, causing more than four million recorded deaths, changing the way we travel, work, and socialize, as well as reducing the global economic output by trillions of dollars. It has highlighted the importance of monitoring and addressing low probability, high impact risks and reinforced the willingness to “think about the unthinkable”. This report reviews methods in strategic foresight that can help organizations to deal with and reduce uncertainty.
A few key points highlighted by the report:
• Horizon scanning aims to find leading indicators for future developments, and it profits from the organization of networks that cross disciplinary and institutional boundaries.
• The short-term forecasting of technological and political events contains clear elements of skill. Prediction challenges are an attractive approach to such questions because they establish individual track records.
• Longer-term (five years or more) forecasting of events is not feasible. However, structural shifts and their implications can and should be analyzed.
• Scenarios are a tool to explore the sequences, consequences, and interplay between different actors in a possible future that has been identified as relevant.