Geopolitical Dimensions of the Energy Transition
The Russian war of aggression in Ukraine has intensified efforts in Europe to become more independent of Russian fossil fuels. This has given political urgency to ambitions for the development of more renewable energy sources. Access to raw materials outside Europe will be key to this process of energy transition, and it could become a new dimension of geopolitical competition, argues Julian Kamasa in this CSS Analysis.
The necessary shift from fossil fuels such as natural gas, oil or coal towards renewable energy sources has increasingly intensified the pressure to act at the political, economic and societal levels across the world. The International Energy Agency and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimate that net-zero emissions by 2050 should contain the temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius. A net-zero scenario would mean that wind and solar energy would have to account for 70 percent of primary energy consumption. In 2020, the share of these energy sources was only nine percent, which strikingly illustrates the needed scale of the energy transition. Specific efforts towards developing cleaner energy or more sustainable forms of mobility have been on the rise for several years. In the meantime, they have also become profitable.