Learning from the Ukrainian Battlefield: Tomorrow’s Drone Warfare, Today’s Innovation Challenge
Dr. Dominika Kunertova has written a capstone drone report that marks her recent departure from the Center for Security Studies at ETH Zurich. The report outlines major drone developments based on analysis of Russia’s war in Ukraine and its impact on the proliferation of uncrewed systems across operational domains.
Russia’s war in Ukraine has undoubtedly become the single most important conflict for understanding how drone warfare may take shape in the future. This research report identifies nine key takeaways based upon a comprehensive analysis of combat-proven practices from the Ukrainian battlefield. These lessons cover technology, doctrine, and policy alike. The report’s four chapters examine the main opportunities for improving drone capabilities across functions and operational domains. They also highlight the persistent challenges accompanying the development, integration, and deployment of new uncrewed systems. Importantly, however, drones are not a panacea for achieving strategic victories or winning wars. This report therefore makes an effort to manage expectations about drone capabilities while emphasizing the central role of human capital. Indeed, when combined with new enabling technologies, skilled specialists produce effective drone performance.
Chapter 1 analyzes drone warfare by both sides in the war in Ukraine. Past drone wars featured large, long-endurance drones equipped with powerful sensors and loaded with missiles. But in post-2/22 Ukraine, drone diversity dominates the battlefield. Drones, small, inexpensive, and commercially available, demonstrate their tactical utility in high-intensity warfare by both providing a live-feed of the battlefield and becoming ammunition themselves. These developments have contributed to an improved cost-per-effect ratio of drone capabilities and an increasing relevance of vertical dimensions in land operations.
Chapter 2 covers the diffusion of drone technology. Unsurprisingly, new national acquisition strategies are slowly embracing drone diversity. This includes not only surveillance drones of different sizes but also drones armed with anti-armor bombs, as well as loitering munitions. And while the popularity of commercial small drone technology solutions keeps rising among militaries, large surveillance drones have gained new customers thanks to their comparative strategic advantages. However, countering drone threats presents a persistent problem for modern militaries.
Chapter 3 examines drone research and development. Military artificial intelligence (AI) is continuously enhancing data analytics and command and control. Yet, it continues to face issues with reliability and effectiveness. Drone wingmen teamed with humans define nextgeneration uncrewed systems. Meanwhile, aerial drones coordinate with uncrewed – and increasingly weaponized – ground vehicles and drone boats in multi-domain operations.
Finally, Chapter 4 highlights the innovation adoption challenge that can seriously impede successful integration of new drone systems into military force structures. It highlights two further policy problems likely to shape future drone warfare: obsolete export control standards leading to eased proliferation of drones to hostile actors, and insufficient legal and ethical norms addressing experiments with AI on active battlefields.