Conceptualizing Multilateral Nuclear Arms Control

Stephen Herzog

2021 – 2024

World events in recent years have had sharp consequences for the prospects of nuclear arms control. Indeed, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, unraveling of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with Iran, and North Korean provocations have all increased nuclear dangers. Thus, this project aims to identify and assess viable mechanisms for nuclear arms control, nonproliferation, and disarmament at a time of great turbulence in the global nuclear order. The research focuses on multilateral possibilities as bilateral nuclear arms control between the United States and the Russian Federation continues to stagnate.

In particular, it explores issues related to the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), and various Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zones (NWFZs). The project scrutinizes multilateral nuclear arms control by asking understudied questions such as: Why do states sign and ratify these treaties? Who are the actors involved in the arms control process? How can policymakers design effective and durable agreements? And what might the future of verification look like given these dynamics?

The primary mode of inquiry is qualitative with causal mechanisms as the inferential target. Accordingly, the project incorporates historiography, archival studies often involving recently declassified documents, and original elite and oral history interviews.

Selected Publications

external page Gibbons, Rebecca Davis; Herzog, Stephen; Wan, Wilfred; Horschig, Doreen (2023) 'The Altered Nuclear Order in the Wake of the Russia-Ukraine War', American Academy of Arts and Sciences Report.

external page Bollfrass, Alexander K.; Herzog, Stephen (2022) 'The War in Ukraine and Global Nuclear Order', Survival 64, 4: 7–32.

external page Gibbons, Rebecca Davis; Herzog, Stephen (2022) 'The First TPNW Meeting and the Future of the Nuclear Ban Treaty', Arms Control Today 52, 7: 12–17.

external page Gibbons, Rebecca Davis; Herzog, Stephen (2022) ‘Durable Institution Under Fire: The NPT Confronts Emerging Multipolarity’, Contemporary Security Policy 43, 1: 50-79.

external page Herzog, Stephen (2021) ‘Backchannel Non-​Proliferation: Militarily Non-​Aligned States and Nuclear Diplomacy’, in: Black-​Branch, Jonathan L.; Fleck, Dieter (eds.) Nuclear Non-​Proliferation in International Law – Volume VI, The Hague: Springer/T.M.C. Asser: 281–303.

Selected Media Contributions

external page Herzog, Stephen (2022) 'Switzerland’s Wait-and-See Approach to Nuclear Ban Treaty is Sensible'. Swissinfo.

external page Herzog, Stephen; Bollfrass, Alexander K. (2022) ‘The Conflict in Ukraine and the Global Nuclear Order’. Conversation Six podcast. March 19.

Related Publications

external page Allison, David M.; Herzog, Stephen; Green, Brendan Rittenhouse; Long, Austin (2020) ‘Correspondence: Clandestine Capabilities and Technological Diffusion Risks’, International Security 45, 2: 194–198.

external page Allison, David M.; Herzog, Stephen (2020) ‘"What About China?" and the Threat to US–Russian Nuclear Arms Control’, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 76, 4: 200–205.

external page Gibbons, Rebecca Davis; Herzog, Stephen (2020) '75 Years after Hiroshima, Here are 4 Things to Know about Nuclear Disarmament Efforts'. Washington Post/Monkey Cage.

external page Herzog, Stephen (2018) ‘A Way Forward With North Korea: The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty’. War on the Rocks.

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