Intelligence Assessments of Nuclear Programs

Alex Bollfrass

2019 - 2021

Predictions that other countries will acquire nuclear arms influence policy choices from treaties to war-making. The most effective counter-proliferation actions occur early in a program. Because of these high stakes and the short window of opportunity in which coercion can succeed, states value knowledge about each other's nuclear programs. This research provides public insight into what intelligence analysis and prediction has--and has not--been able to do for policymakers. The project draws on evidence from over 1,000 original archival and freshly declassified files from East Germany, the United Kingdom, Sweden, West Germany, and Switzerland.