The other side of COIN: Insurgents Firepower and Counter-insurgency Outcome

Mauro Gilli

2016 - 2020

Funded by Center for Security Studies, ETH Zurich; Stanford University, Center for International Security and Cooperation; University of Miami, Department of Political Science; Dartmouth College, John Sloan Dickey Center for International Understanding; Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School’s Niehaus Center for Globalization and Governance.

What explains the historical trend towards increasing probability of insurgent victory? We posit that this is the result of the diffusion and increasing lethality of small arms, light weapons and explosives available to insurgents. While prominent among policy-makers as well as governmental and non-governmental organizations, the diffusion of small arms and light weapons has received scant attention among international relations scholars. With this project, we aim at filling this gap. We are currently gathering data in order to create a dataset that permits us to carry out a statistical analysis and assess the effect, if any, of what we call the increasing firepower of insurgents.

Partners:  Andrea Gilli and Costantino Pischedda