The Possibilities and Pitfalls of Prediction: Academic contributions to future-oriented policy-making

Ursula Jaspers, Myriam Dunn Cavelty, Andreas Wenger

2016 - 2019

Both social and life sciences are increasingly expected to contribute to policy making by providing policy-advice in the form of scenarios and forecasts of future developments. In this research project we will therefore inquire into the possibilities and limits, but also the political implications of future-oriented policy-advice. How do different epistemological traditions conceptualize (future) knowledge? What types of future knowledge can academia provide? What are the methods to draw upon? Which assumptions drive future thinking? Looking back at examples of prediction and future studies we want to ask who gets heard and who has the authority to provide predictions and forecasts? How were these insights used? What were the political implications? What is the political purpose of future thinking? How do power dynamics and authority play in? Looking across disciplinary boundaries, we want to investigate what we can learn from concrete examples in different fields and across time.