Public and Elite Opinion on Nuclear Politics

Stephen Herzog

2021 – 2024

The past few years have seen an increase in both nuclear crises and advocacy efforts aimed at influencing nuclear policy. Each has again raised enduring questions about public opinion on nuclear issues and the compatibility of military and civilian nuclear technologies with democratic governance. Consequently, much recent scholarship has emerged on these topics, which has also been subject to extensive criticism.

This project seeks to substantively and methodologically build and improve upon nascent literature on public and elite nuclear attitudes. It investigates a range of important themes related to the domestic dimensions of nuclear politics. Questions addressed by this project include: Do publics really support the use of nuclear weapons? How do public and elite opinion intersect in the domains of nuclear conflict, arms control, and weapons proliferation? Are “standard operating procedures” related to controlling risks from military and civilian nuclear technologies in need of reassessment?

The mode of inquiry for this research is mixed methods, drawing on qualitative, experimental, and quasi-experimental approaches. In doing so, the project endeavors to achieve academic rigor and policy relevance through study design choices and external validity. For example, survey experimental efforts may be based on background archival research or policymaker focus groups.

Selected Publications

external page Herzog, Stephen; Baron, Jonathon; Gibbons, Rebecca Davis (2023) 'Gender Analysis and the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons: A Response to Daarstad, Park, and Balogh', I4R Discussion Paper Series, Institute for Replication.

external page Eriksen, Christine; Herzog, Stephen (2023) ‘Nuclear Waste’, in: N. Wallenhorst, N.; Wulf, C. (eds.) Handbook of the Anthropocene, Cham, Switzerland: Springer Nature: 1521–1525.

Herzog, Stephen (2022) 'The Nuclear Reality is Unsettling', ETH Zukunftsblog. November 21.

external page Herzog, Stephen (2022) 'Beyond Nuclear Deterrence', Science 378, 6616: 115.

external page Allison, David M.; Herzog, Stephen; Ko, Jiyoung (2022) ‘Under the Umbrella: Nuclear Crises, Extended Deterrence, and Public Opinion’. Journal of Conflict Resolution 66, 10: 1766-1796.

external page Herzog, Stephen; Baron, Jonathon; Gibbons, Rebecca Davis (2022) ‘Antinormative Messaging, Group Cues, and the Nuclear Ban Treaty’, Journal of Politics 84, 1: 591–596.

Related Publications

external page Baron, Jonathon; Gibbons, Rebecca Davis; Herzog, Stephen (2020) ‘Japanese Public Opinion, Political Persuasion, and the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons’, Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament 3, 2: 299–309.

external page Baron, Jonathon; Herzog, Stephen (2020) ‘Public Opinion on Nuclear Energy and Nuclear Weapons: The Attitudinal Nexus in the United States’, Energy Research & Social Science 68, 101567: 1–11.

external page Herzog, Stephen; Pelopidas, Benoît; Baron, Jonathon; Fialho, Fabrício (2020) ‘Donald Trump Could Lose the Election by Authorizing a New Nuclear Weapons Test’. The National Interest. June 20.

external page Baron, Jonathon; Herzog, Stephen (2020) ‘Poll: What the American Public Likes and Hates About Trump’s Nuclear Policies’. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. April 27.

external page Herzog, Stephen; Baron, Jonathon (2017) ‘Public Support, Political Polarization, and the Nuclear-​Test Ban: Evidence from a New US National Survey’, Nonproliferation Review 24, 3–4: 357–371.