The Role of Political Leaders in Nuclear Proliferation

Jonas Schneider

2017 - 2020

This project examines the impact of political leaders on nuclear proliferation dynamics. Existing theories of nuclear proliferation have privileged international structural forces, such as regional rivalries, the reliability of security guarantees extended by major powers, or the global nonproliferation regime. In addition, conventional theories have often stressed the proliferation-driving or inhibiting effect of domestic structures, including public opinion, the centralization of decision-making authority, and economic institutions that shape the ruling coalition’s vulnerability to sanctions. Given their emphasis on the structural context, these works presume that it is essentially irrelevant for states’ nuclear trajectory which particular political leaders are calling the shots. However, this assumption—that political leaders do not matter in nuclear politics—receives very little support from the recent wave of historical research on nuclear dynamics.

Drawing on primary sources, these studies have shown that many cases of both nuclear proliferation and nuclear weapons restraint cannot be fully understood when neglecting the influence of the involved political leaders. Proceeding from this insight—that leaders do matter in nuclear politics—this project aims to find out why and under what conditions they matter (most) in nuclear proliferation dynamics. Empirically, the project focuses on the role of leaders in (1) US allies’ choices to abandon their nuclear weapons activities and (2) decisions of middle-power supplier states to provide or refuse sensitive nuclear assistance to non-nuclear weapon states. By developing and testing leader-focused theories of nuclear reversal and sensitive nuclear assistance, the project contributes to the literature on the causes of nuclear proliferation and adds to recent scholarship on the influence of leaders in world politics.

Related publications

Jonas Schneider (2019), external page The Study of Leaders in Nuclear Proliferation and How to Reinvigorate It, International Studies Review.

Jonas Schneider and Gene Gerzhoy (2016), external page Correspondence: The United States and West Germany’s Quest for Nuclear Weapons, International Security, Vol. 41, No. 1: 182–85.

Jonas Schneider (2016), external page Amerikanische Allianzen und nukleare Nichtverbreitung: Die Beendigung von Kernwaffenaktivitäten bei Verbündeten der USA [American Alliances and Nuclear Reversal: Why US Allies Abandon Their Nuclear Weapons Activities] (Baden-Baden: Nomos).