No. 146: Eurasian Union

Against the background of recent developments in Ukraine, this edition examines the future of the Eurasian Union integration project. Firstly, Arkady Moshes notes that Moscow’s efforts to persuade Kiev to join the Eurasian Union were always instrumental, rather than an end in itself. Hence, Moscow’s goal vis-à-vis Ukraine remains the same: keeping it within Russia’s spheres of influence. The method has, however, changed, from an emphasis on carrots to a focus on sticks, namely utilising economic leverage and the threat of a military invasion. Secondly, David Lane considers the Eurasian Union’s trajectory from the perspective of the increasing regionalisation of world politics. He suggests three scenarios are possible: isolation from the world economy; a ‘stepping stone’ to further integration in the world economy; and a more autonomous ‘counter-point’ within the world economy. Thirdly, Matthew Frear assesses the Belarussian perspective on the Eurasian Union. He outlines that although some in Belarus question the economic rationale, Minsk remains heavily dependent on Russian support and thus Belarus is a consistent participant in Moscow’s Eurasian integration project, with the crisis in Ukraine further limiting Minsk’s geopolitical room for manoeuvre. Fourthly, Aida Abzhaparova examines Kazakhstan’s position on the Eurasian Union. She argues that Astana’s active participation is linked to the significance placed on being 'Eurasian' within Kazakh state identity, and for this reason Kazakhstan is playing an important role in developing the Eurasian Union.